While little exists intrinsically to judge the fair value of a digitized currency, comparing bitcoin with other high-momentum assets of the past shows how heated its rally has become — and why it’s vulnerable to swoons such as Monday’s.
儘管本質上無法判斷數字化貨幣的公允價值，但將比特幣與過去的其他高動量資產進行比較，可以看出其漲勢已變得多麼熱烈，以及為什麼它容易遭受星期一之類的暴跌。Last week, for example, bitcoin managed to trade 179% above its average price over the last 200 days, three times as high as the Nasdaq 100 ever got during the heyday of the dot-com bubble. The digital coin was up 120% over the last 20 sessions, a rate of return that’s also three times the best gain that the tech-heavy equities gauge ever saw.
“If we’re just to compare it apples to apples with other commodities, it feels like a huge bubble and you could say it’s crazy expensive,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “I can’t get involved in something with those kinds of technicals.”
例如，上週，比特幣在過去200天內的交易均價比其平均價格高179％，是互聯網泡沫鼎盛時期納斯達克100指數的三倍。在過去的20個交易日中，這種數字貨幣上漲了120％，收益率也是高科技股票市場有史以來的最高收益的三倍。Bitcoin fell as much as 20% on Monday, and was down 16% to $33,440 as of 4 p.m. in New York.
週一，比特幣下跌多達20％，截至下午4點，下跌16％至33,440美元。在紐約。
Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett say bitcoin’s rally is one thing, along with recent trends in the initial public offering and special purpose acquisition company markets, that makes investor behavior look speculative at the moment.
以邁克爾·哈特奈特（Michael Hartnett）為首的美國銀行策略師表示，比特幣的上漲是一回事，再加上首次公開募股和特殊目的收購公司市場的最新趨勢，這使得投資者的行為目前看來具有投機性。The digital asset’s 900% advance since 2018 has been so swift that it dwarfs all other boom cycles in financial assets during the last 50 years, from gold’s rally in the late 1970s to the Nikkei 225’s surge in the 1980s to the Nasdaq 100’s run in the 1990s.
自2018年以來，該數字資產的900％增長是如此迅速，以至於使過去50年中金融資產的所有其他繁榮週期相形見,,從1970年代後期的黃金漲勢到1980年代的日經225的飆升再到納斯達克100的運行。 1990年代。In fact, bitcoin’s velocity is almost two times as intense as the next biggest episode of market froth — the spike in Chinese stocks during the early 2000s.
實際上，比特幣的速度幾乎是下一輪市場泡沫的兩倍——2000年代初中國股市的飆升。It “blows the doors off prior bubbles,” the strategists wrote in a Friday note, asking whether bitcoin is “the Mother-of-all-bubbles.”
策略師在周五的一份報告中寫道，這“打破了先前的泡沫之門，”他問比特幣是否是“所有泡沫之母”。
Many worry the 300% rally last year that persisted into 2021 up until Monday is untethered from reason and fundamentals and is fueled by vast swathes of fiscal and monetary stimulus sloshing around at a time when global economies are still dealing with the fallout from the pandemic.
許多人擔心，去年一直持續到2021年直到週一的300％反彈不受理性和基本面的束縛，而在全球經濟仍在應對大流行的影響之際，大量的財政和貨幣刺激措施加劇了這種情況。Up 38% this year through Friday, bitcoin had its best start to a year since 2012, when it surged almost 60% over the first eight days. Scott Minerd, chief investment officer with Guggenheim Investments, who recently said the coin could be worth as much as $400,000, wrote in a tweet that it was “time to take some money off the table.”
截至週五，今年以來上漲了38％，是自2012年以來的最好開端，當時比特幣在前八天飆升了近60％。古根海姆投資公司（Guggenheim Investments）首席投資官斯科特·米納德（Scott Minerd）最近表示，這枚硬幣的價值可能高達40萬美元。他在一條推文中寫道，現在“該花些錢了”。It’s the type of thing many investors have been eyeing warily in a market that’s been laden with speculative mania, including dizzying trends in the initial public offerings space and the resurgence in cryptocurrencies igniting worries that a comeuppance could be due.
在充滿投機狂潮的市場上，許多投資者一直在警惕這種事情，其中包括首次公開募股（IPO）空間的令人眼花trends亂的趨勢以及加密貨幣的回升，引發了人們對可能出現意外的擔憂。Bitcoin’s weekend action fueled those concerns. The digital asset slid as much as 26% over Sunday and Monday in the biggest two-day drop since March.
Still, bitcoin’s fans argue that its recent rally isn’t comparable to its other euphoric stretches,such as the one in 2017 that ultimately resulted in a huge sell-off the next year. Many argue that the asset has matured with the recent entry of institutional investors who have taken a greater interest as the coin rallied to record after record. In addition, they say, it is increasingly seen as a legitimate hedge against dollar weakness and inflation risk.
儘管如此，比特幣的支持者仍認為，其最近的漲勢無法與其他欣欣向榮的漲勢相提並論，例如2017年的漲勢最終導致明年的大幅拋售。許多人爭辯說，隨著機構投資者的加入，資產已經成熟，隨著代幣的上漲，人們越來越感興趣。他們說，此外，人們越來越多地將其視為對美元疲軟和通脹風險的合法對沖。“Here you’ve got both fear and greed driving that baby to the moon,” said Bryce Doty, portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors. “That does qualify as frothy.”
Other technical signals also suggested a worrying trend. Bitcoin’s drop over the weekend triggered a sell signal according to the GTI Global Strength Indicator, which measures upward and downward movements of successive closing prices. The coin’s 20-day moving average has thus far provided a support level throughout its uptrend, though bitcoin remains overbought, according to the GTI gauge.
其他技術信號也表明趨勢令人擔憂。根據GTI全球實力指標，比特幣在周末的下跌觸發了賣出信號，該指標衡量了連續收盤價的上下波動。根據GTI的數據，儘管比特幣仍然超買，但該硬幣的20日移動均線到目前為止在整個上升趨勢中均提供了支撐位。Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, says there are good reasons for believing in bitcoin but, to him, it’s a question of whether it constitutes a good place to allocate capital. His team isn’t currently apportioning money toward it, but if it did, it would view that as a speculative bet rather than as a store of value.
獨立顧問聯盟（Instant Advisor Alliance）首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利（Chris Zaccarelli）說，相信比特幣是有充分理由的，但是對他來說，這是一個問題，即它是否構成分配資金的好地方。他的團隊目前並未為此分配資金，但如果確實如此，它將把這視為投機行為，而不是價值儲存。
“Bitcoin is in the early stages of its move,” he said. “Whether we
are already in a bubble or whether we are in the process of forming one
will only be known in hindsight, but we think it will be similar to
previous bubbles we have seen in the past.”他說：“比特幣正處於發展的初期。” “我們是否已經處於泡沫之中，或者我們是否正在形成一個泡沫，只有事後才知道，但我們認為這將類似於我們過去所見的泡沫。"
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